Abstract
In this paper, we employ measurements of transponder tolerance to both
differential group delay (DGD) and second-order polarization mode dispersion
(SOPMD) and of the temporal evolution of DGD and SOPMD in installed transmission
systems to predict the influence of PMD on the rate and duration of PMD-induced
system outages. An empirical 2-D random-walk model predicts that the outage
rate and duration depends solely on the mean fiber DGD. We find that the step
size of the random walk is nearly uncorrelated with the instantaneous value
of the PMD. We then justify the assumptions of this procedure with a full
numerical simulation and employ a biased Markov chain algorithm to generate
highly accurate results for system outages where simplified models fail.
© 2008 IEEE
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